Democrats Win Special Elections in State Level Races: Pennsylvania, Iowa

On March 25th, two major special elections in the state of Pennsylvania, one for the state house and one for the state senate, were held. The results? A historic victory for democrats. State Senator Ryan Aument, former member of the Pennsylvania state house, resigned his seat early to serve as newly elected Senator Dave McCormick's state director on December 31st of last year. His resignation left the seat open. State Representative Matt Gergely died on January 19th of this year, leaving his seat open as well.

Special elections for this district were both held on March 25th. Gergely's seat was an easy victory for democrats, as the district had voted comfortably for Gergely, and the democrats in general, in the last election. However, the real surprise of the night came when Aument's seat was so close that they couldn't call. His seat has been an assured victory for republicans. That's what the GOP thought, at least. His seat was instead filled by James Malone, the democratic challenger against Josh Parsons, the republican running for the seat. This was the first time in a very long time that the district had voted for a democrat.

While the special election's results don't change the makeup of the state senate, they gave control of the state house back to the Pennsylvanian democrats by one seat, leaving the margin 102 to 101. The composition of the state senate was left 27 to 23, in favor of the republicans. The composition of the Pennsylvanian state senate has not changed from republicans to democrats for nearly 10 years.

While this state senate special election is hardly a true upset in the long run, it does raise a larger question: should the GOP be worried? The GOP has been on a small streak of losing important local elections, with such an election being the district 35 state senate special election back in late January. This was a seat that Donald Trump had won by 21 percent, however, Mike Zimmer, the democrat running for the open seat, won by three percent.

Whether this is part of a larger trend only time will tell, but there is something that is sure: Special elections tend to be outliers. They tend to reflect very poorly on the current administration, but this typically tends to happen later in the term. An incumbent party usually enjoys a honeymoon period of a couple months to a year before approval ratings and fatigue start to set in. Special elections within the first couple of months of an administration that result in the incumbent party under-performing this badly is something the GOP should be afraid of, and something the democrats should capitalize on. Special elections are, well, special in another sense that they typically have people turn out at much less of a rate than regular elections. They generally have some of the worst turnout out of all elections held in the country.

Using special elections to determine the strength of a political party, especially special elections at a state-legislative level, is not recommended, nor is it the industry standard. Even with that said, it is not a good sign for the GOP to be losing this badly in the first three months of the second Trump administration.